Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
