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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It often acts as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct line: the skipper who oversaw the largest improvement is handed the award. In practice, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or just the greatest shock.

But this year's field is distinctly different. The list of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference champions falling away and longtime strugglers rising collectively. During an ordinary year, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a turbulent and fun season, he's facing multiple other elite candidates.

Below is how the ideal vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than freelancing. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that frees wide-open targets consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been able to spin big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current is not a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an initial hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason setback had the team stumbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him just one spot ahead of peers.

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